The Chessboard
Myanmar Levers
The power that keeps the Rohingya stateless, in camps and under attack, and the power that can end it — drawn from the Myanmar opinions and the Genocide Plan built on them.
Power for the Rohingya's safety, return and justice
Junta guns and foreign fuel sustain the genocide; courts, sanctions and Muslim solidarity could end it
Myanmar's military, now presented as a civilian presidency, keeps the genocide going with Russian and Chinese arms, protection at the Security Council, doubled jet-fuel imports and neighbours who keep receiving its leader, while Washington unwinds its own sanctions. The Arakan Army, which rules most of Rakhine, also abuses Rohingya, so return is unsafe under either authority. Ranged against these forces are the ICJ, ICC and Argentine cases, which are advancing but slowly, and sanctions on fuel, gas revenue and banks that are full of gaps. Shrinking camp aid, Malaysia's deportations and divided Rohingya representation weaken the victims' position, and Muslim states' solidarity remains mostly words rather than action that protects them.
Key points
- Perpetrator and its suppliers. Myanmar's military drives the genocide, sustained by over $1 billion in arms led by Russia and China, doubled jet-fuel imports and Security Council cover.
- Courts as heaviest lever. The pending ICJ judgment, the ICC warrant request and Argentina's warrants, fed by UN-gathered evidence, are the strongest levers, though justice remains undelivered.
- Economic leverage eroding. Sanctions cut junta arms imports by over 30%, yet US delistings, partial measures on gas revenue and banks, and non-sanctioning states keep money and fuel flowing.
- Diplomacy lends legitimacy. The UN and EU refuse recognition and ASEAN withholds certification, but state visits, Malaysia's return deal and China's backing hand the junta legitimacy.
- Arakan Army's grip. The Arakan Army holds most of Rakhine yet kills, conscripts and dispossesses Rohingya, so recognition of its rule must hinge on their rights and return.
- Camps, sea and return. Food aid cut to about $7 a month, record deaths at sea and Malaysian deportations endanger Rohingya, while the junta offers return only if the cases are dropped.
- What duty now demands. Muslim states must turn OIC communiqués into embargoes, litigation funding and burden-sharing with Bangladesh, Muslim communities must fund the camps, and Rohingya need camp-rooted representation.
Drawn from
- Myanmar: Muslim States, the OIC and the RohingyaThe OIC and Turkey back the Rohingya's case for justice in words, funds and aid, while Malaysia, long their refuge, has begun deporting them to a Myanmar still at war.
- Myanmar: Rohingya Representation and the Federal FutureMyanmar's shadow government has pledged Rohingya citizenship since 2021, but rival Rohingya factions, a resurgent Arakan Army, and Bangladesh's own diplomacy now all compete to shape what repatriation would actually mean.
- Myanmar: The Refugees — Camps, Boats and ReturnNine years after fleeing Myanmar's 2017 crackdown, more than a million Rohingya remain in Bangladesh camps as Malaysia starts deporting some back, sea crossings turn deadlier, and funding cuts strip away aid.
- Myanmar: Rakhine Today — the Arakan Army and the RohingyaRohingya in Myanmar's Rakhine State are caught between an Arakan Army that now rules most of the territory but abuses them, and a junta waging an intensifying air war, while international courts weigh unresolved genocide and war-crimes cases.
- Myanmar: Economic Leverage — Sanctions, Jet Fuel and DivestmentDespite years of sanctions meant to cut Myanmar's junta off from funds, arms and jet fuel, the US has spent 2025–26 rolling sanctions back even as the junta's jet fuel imports doubled and airstrikes intensified.
- Myanmar: States, Blocs and DiplomacyThe junta's controlled election made Min Aung Hlaing president; UN experts call it a sham, ASEAN won't certify it yet still deals with the junta as Myanmar's government, and legal cases advance even as regional states keep receiving him.
- Myanmar: The Junta's Backers and the Arms SupplyMyanmar's junta, battered on the battlefield, survives on arms and diplomatic cover from Russia and China and widening outreach to India, while it is accused of war crimes and faces calls for a global arms embargo.
- Myanmar: International Law and the CourtsMyanmar's Rohingya genocide case is being litigated simultaneously at the ICJ, the ICC and Argentina's courts, while Myanmar denies the charges and its military escalates aerial attacks.
